Impact of Houthi Attacks on Maritime Trade in the Red Sea

The recent transit of the first LNG carrier through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait marks a significant shift in maritime traffic in the Red Sea, which has been disrupted by Houthi attacks. This event highlights the strategic importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait as a critical shipping route and the challenges faced by the shipping industry due to ongoing Houthi threats. This article explores the impact of this transit on global maritime security and the broader economic implications.

Historical Context

The Houthi attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea have significantly disrupted commercial navigation and impacted global trade. Here are the key points:

Frequency and Targets

• The Houthi group, backed by Iran, has been launching attacks on commercial ships since October 2023, primarily triggered by the Israel-Hamas war and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza [Middle East Institute].
• From October 2023 to March 2024, the Houthis attacked more than 60 vessels in the Red Sea, leading to a sharp decline in merchant traffic through the region [TradeWinds].
• Attacks have targeted ships linked to Israel, as well as those with indirect connections (e.g., UK and US ships) and even vessels with no apparent links to these countries, citing the use of inaccurate or outdated targeting data [Marine Link].

Impact on Shipping Traffic

• The attacks have led to a 79.6% drop in drybulk carriers going through the Suez Canal in June 2024 compared to June 2023 [Middle East Institute].
• Many shipping companies, including Maersk and MSC, have rerouted their ships around Africa to avoid the Red Sea, resulting in increased fuel costs (up to $1 million) and additional transit times (one to two weeks) [Middle East Institute].

Humanitarian Impact

The disruptions have not only affected commercial shipping but also humanitarian aid deliveries to countries like Yemen, which relies on the Suez Canal for imports and exports [Middle East Institute].

Military Response

• The UN Security Council has condemned the Houthi attacks, and the United States has led coalition air and missile strikes against Houthi targets in the Red Sea, alongside other countries independently patrolling the area [TradeWinds].
• Despite these military actions, the Houthi group continues to threaten shipping, with their leader warning that they remain ready to resume attacks if certain conditions are not met [Marine Link].

Future Outlook

• Despite the pledge to limit attacks, the Red Sea remains a highly volatile area due to the Houthis’ opportunistic nature and their unpredictable targeting practices [Marine Link].
• The group plans to continue using the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb as strategic chokepoints to exert leverage in regional conflicts, potentially even establishing a maritime traffic center for monitoring and interrogating passing vessels [Marine Link].

Recent Developments

The recent transit of an LNG carrier through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is noted in the latest maritime news. The Salalah LNG, a 148,173-cbm vessel, was the first LNG carrier in five months to pass through the strait on February 8, 2025. This development is significant because it indicates a potential easing of the Houthi rebel threats in the region, which have been a major deterrent for maritime traffic in the Red Sea for much of 2024 [Middle East Institute].

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial maritime passage connecting the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. It is a vital route for global maritime trade, carrying approximately 4.5% of the world’s total maritime trade by volume. The strait’s strategic location makes it a target for various geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen [TradeWinds].

Economic Implications

The first LNG carrier to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea has significant economic implications for the global LNG market. The transit of the Asya Energy, a Palau-flagged LNG tanker, marked a pivotal moment, as it was the first such vessel to pass through the strait since January 2024 [Marine Insight].

Shipping Risk and Costs

The transit route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is critical for the global LNG market, particularly for Qatari LNG carriers bound for European markets. This extra distance translates to an additional $1 million in fuel costs per voyage [Marine Insight]. Vessels avoiding the Red Sea route are taking the longer and more costly passage around the Cape of Good Hope, which can add approximately 22 days to the round-trip passage from Qatar to Europe.

Market Shifts and Volatility

The transit of the Asya Energy through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has highlighted the economic implications of the recent easing of Houthi threats. The resumption of LNG shipments through the Red Sea route offers a more direct and cost-effective alternative to the longer Cape of Good Hope route, reducing the market volatility that had been driven by the uncertainty surrounding the Red Sea route [Marine Link].

Impact on Maritime Traffic and Global Shipping Dynamics

The transit of the Asya Energy has also underscored the importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in global maritime traffic. The strait is a crucial choke point for maritime traffic, connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean [Middle East Institute]. The increased LNG shipments through the strait are likely to enhance maritime traffic and boost the region’s economy.

Conclusion

In summary, the first LNG carrier to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid Houthi attacks has significant economic implications, including increased shipping costs, market volatility, and the potential for further segmentation of the global LNG market. The transit of the Asya Energy has highlighted the economic benefits of the recent easing of Houthi threats and the significance of the Red Sea route in global maritime traffic and shipping dynamics. The increased LNG shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are expected to boost the region’s energy sector and enhance maritime traffic, contributing to the overall stability and growth of the global LNG market.

Geopolitical Considerations

The ongoing conflict involving the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are backed by Iran, poses significant risks to international shipping. These include missile and drone assaults, escalating tensions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden [Ristian], [Kennedy]. Conflicts in critical maritime choke points like the Bab al-Mandab Strait can severely disrupt global trade by hindering safe passage [Kennedy]. These tensions often involve direct or indirect involvement of major powers such as the U.S., China, and Iran, influencing international relations and maritime security policies [HCSS].

Sources

• Energy Information Administration
• Kennedy – Ongoing Geopolitical Conflicts Continue to Impact the Global Marine Market
• HCSS – Geopolitics and Maritime Security
• Marine Insight – First LNG Tanker Crosses the Red Sea Since January Amidst Houthi Attacks
• Marine Link – Data Shows That a Rare LNG Vessel is Sailing Through the Red Sea
• Middle East Institute – Implications of Red Sea Instability on the Global LNG Market
• Ristian
• TradeWinds – First LNG Carrier Braves Gulf of Suez After Three-Month Hiatus Due to Houthi Threat