Introduction
The crude oil tanker sector witnessed a significant slowdown in 2024, with new deliveries reaching a 36-year low. This trend has substantial implications for fleet growth
and the overall dynamics of the maritime industry. According to BIMCO, only 17 new vessels were added to the global fleet, amounting to 2.5 million DWT. This represents a 74% drop in delivery capacity compared to the previous year.
Impact on Fleet Growth
The slowdown in deliveries has led to a mere 0.2% fleet growth in 2024, the slowest expansion in 23 years. While the Aframax and Suezmax segments showed modest growth, the VLCC segment contracted due to vessel recycling and zero new deliveries.
Factors Contributing to the Slowdown
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, attributes this trend to a significant drop in contracting during 2022. Despite longer voyages due to Russian sanctions, contracting fell to 3.2m DWT, 83% lower than the average of the last 10 years.
Aging Fleet and Potential Recycling Wave
The minimal fleet additions and low recycling rates have pushed the average age of crude tankers to 12.8 years, the highest in 26 years. Vessels aged 20 years or older now represent 19% of the fleet, suggesting a potential wave of recycling in the coming years.
Signs of Industry Revival
The order book has rebounded significantly since 2023, with the order book/fleet ratio rising from 2.8% to 10.4% at the start of 2025. This signals a potential average annual capacity increase of 2.5% through 2028, aligning with slowing global oil demand growth.
Opportunities for Decarbonization
The renewal of the fleet presents an opportunity for decarbonization. While only 3.6% of current crude tankers can use alternative fuels, upcoming deliveries show a marked improvement, with 18% of new vessels being alternative-fuel capable and an additional 29% designed for future retrofitting.
Conclusion
The crude oil tanker sector is experiencing significant changes, with low deliveries and an aging fleet. However, increased contracting and a focus on decarbonization offer promising prospects for the future.
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