Introduction

Maritime traffic through the Red Sea is expected to gradually resume following the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire. This development is crucial for the maritime industry, but security experts warn of lingering risks for certain vessels.

Current Maritime Security Assessment

According to maritime security firm Ambrey, the resumption of shipping operations depends on the durability of the ceasefire that began on January 19. The ceasefire’s first phase is set to last 42 days, with negotiations for Phase 2 expected by week five. Ambrey’s latest threat assessment indicates that the threat to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remains conditional.

Houthi Stance and Risks

The Houthi-aligned Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has announced a pause in military operations against merchant vessels, excluding those owned or flagged by Israel. The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) advises caution, noting that risks remain high for vessels associated with Israel, the US, or UK.

Recent Incidents and Impact

Since November 2023, over 100 vessel attacks have been reported, including two ships sunk and four seafarers killed. The ongoing hostage situation involving 25 crew members from the car carrier Galaxy Leader, operated by NYK Line, highlights the ongoing risks. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has stated that his forces are ready to intervene if Israel escalates the situation.

Factors Affecting Maritime Security

• Perceived breaches of the ceasefire by Israel
• US or UK military actions against the Houthi

Industry Response and Future Outlook

Drewry estimates that carriers will likely take months to resume normal Suez operations, requiring certainty that threats have been eliminated. Shipping companies are advised to conduct thorough risk assessments and implement security measures before attempting Red Sea passages.

Conclusion

While the ceasefire is a positive development, the maritime industry must remain vigilant and prepared for potential risks. Thorough risk assessments and security measures are essential for safe navigation through the Red Sea.

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