Introduction

The maritime industry is cautiously optimistic following the Houthis’ pledge to halt attacks on non-Israeli commercial vessels. However, industry analysts at Drewry advise against expecting an immediate return to normal Suez Canal transits. The sector faces numerous challenges, including the fragile Gaza ceasefire and the Houthis’ unpredictable behavior.

Impact of Houthis’ Campaign

Since November 2023, the Houthis’ campaign has resulted in over 100 vessel attacks, two ships sunk, four seafarers killed, and the ongoing hostage situation of 25 crew members from the car carrier Galaxy Leader. While the pledge is a positive development, Drewry warns that container lines are unlikely to rush back to the Suez Canal. Carriers will likely take months to resume normal operations, requiring absolute certainty that the threat has been eliminated.

Financial Implications

Interestingly, the Red Sea crisis has financially benefited carriers. The re-routing absorbed approximately 9% of effective capacity, contributing to strong quarterly profits. However, a return to Suez operations would force carriers to confront underlying overcapacity issues.

Additional Uncertainties

• The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds to the maritime industry’s uncertainty.
• Trump is expected to issue hundreds of executive orders in his first week, including potentially significant changes to trade tariffs.

Conclusion

The maritime industry faces a critical period of uncertainty. As Drewry notes, The next few weeks and months will go a long way to deciding how volatile 2025 will be. Key factors include the stability of the Gaza ceasefire, the Houthis’ behavior, and potential changes in U.S. trade policies under Trump’s presidency.

Sources:

• Drewry: Shipping Lines Cautious on Suez Return – gcaptain.com